全球经济的发展推动全球财富的迅速增长。据波士顿咨询公司发布的《2021年全球财富报告》统计，全球财富在2020年达到250万亿美元的历史新高。由此也激发了对于资产配置的强烈需求。如何构建科学的资产配置模型，从而有效地提升资产配置的效率就成为投资主体关注的重点。
由于经济周期往往与资产配置模型密不可分，且已有较多的学者验证了经济周期模型理论上的有效性，所以本文选择了两类经济周期下的资产配置模型--美林时钟模型与普林格经济周期模型，对中美两国的资产配置效果进行了实证考察。结果表明，不论在美国还是中国，相比单资产投资模型与等权重资产配置模型，基于经济周期的资产配置模型能够获得更高的超额收益。同时，当中美两国的投资者在无风险偏好时分别使用美林时钟模型模型与普林格经济周期模型进行投资获得的复合收益差距不明显，但当中美两国的投资者更加偏好股票投资时，使用普林格经济周期模型进行投资能够获得较使用美林时钟模型模型更加明显的收益优势。由此，本文认为在中美两国资本市场，对于债券、大宗商品与现金更加偏好的投资者，更适合运用美林时钟模型进行投资；对于股票更加偏好的投资者，更适合运用普林格经济周期模型进行投资。
The development of the global economy has driven the rapid growth of global wealth. According to the "2021 Global Wealth Report" released by the Boston Consulting Group, global wealth will reach a record high of $250 trillion in 2020. This has also stimulated a strong demand for asset allocation. How to build a scientific asset allocation model to effectively improve the efficiency of asset allocation has become the focus of investors.
Since the economic cycle is often inseparable from the asset allocation model, and many predecessors have verified the theoretical validity of the economic cycle model, this paper selects two types of asset allocation models under the economic cycle--Merrill Lynch clock model and The Pringle business cycle model empirically examines the effects of asset allocation in China and the United States. The results show that, whether in the United States or China, compared with the single-asset investment model and the equal-weight asset allocation model, the asset allocation model based on the economic cycle can achieve higher excess returns. At the same time, when investors in China and the United States use the Merrill Lynch model and the Pringle business cycle model to invest in a risk-free environment, the difference in compound returns is not obvious, but investors in China and the United States prefer stock investment. When investing, using the Pringle business cycle model can obtain a more obvious return advantage than using the Merrill Lynch model. Therefore, this paper believes that in the capital markets of China and the United States, investors who prefer bonds, commodities and cash are more suitable to use the Merrill Lynch model for investment; investors who prefer stocks are more suitable to use Pringle. Investing in a business cycle model.
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